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Gartner 預(yù)測(cè) : 2023 年將實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)民人口 95% 的 5G 覆蓋率
時(shí)間:2020-07-30 15:29:13
文章發(fā)布:李陽(yáng)
原創(chuàng)作者:未知
來(lái)源:互聯(lián)網(wǎng)

根據(jù)全球領(lǐng)先的信息技術(shù)研究和顧問(wèn)公司 Gartner 最新預(yù)測(cè),2020 年全球 5G 網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)市場(chǎng)營(yíng)收將接近翻倍,達(dá)到 81 億美元。

2020 年無(wú)線(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)市場(chǎng)總營(yíng)收將下滑 4.4%,為 381 億美元。2019 年通信服務(wù)提供商 (CSP)對(duì) 5G 網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)的投資占無(wú)線(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)市場(chǎng)總營(yíng)收的 10.4%。而這一投資比例在 2020 年將達(dá)到 21.3%。(參見(jiàn)表 1)

Gartner 高級(jí)研究總監(jiān) Kosei Takiishi 表示:“隨著越來(lái)越多的通信服務(wù)提供商通過(guò)重新利用當(dāng)前資產(chǎn)(包括無(wú)線(xiàn)電頻譜帶寬,基站,核心網(wǎng)絡(luò)和傳輸網(wǎng)絡(luò),以及將 LTE/4G 支出過(guò)渡到維護(hù)模式),以?xún)?yōu)先處理 5G 項(xiàng)目,使得無(wú)線(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)領(lǐng)域的投資繼續(xù)保持增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭。早期的 5G 使用者正在推動(dòng)通信服務(wù)提供商之間更大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。此外,政府以及監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)正在促進(jìn)移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)展,并押注移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)將成為許多行業(yè)廣泛經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的催化劑和倍增器?!?/p>

通信服務(wù)提供商之間日益激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加速了 5G 的采用速度。新的 O-RAN(開(kāi)放式無(wú)線(xiàn)電接入網(wǎng)絡(luò))和 vRAN(虛擬化 RAN)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)未來(lái)可能會(huì)通過(guò)提供極具性?xún)r(jià)比和靈活性的 5G 產(chǎn)品,顛覆現(xiàn)有的供應(yīng)商綁定模式,并促進(jìn) 5G 的采用。Gartner 預(yù)測(cè),大中華地區(qū)(中國(guó)大陸,中國(guó)香港,中國(guó)臺(tái)灣),成熟的亞太地區(qū),北美以及日本等地的通信服務(wù)提供商,將于 2023 年實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)民人口 95% 的 5G 覆蓋率。

表 1: 2019-2020 全球無(wú)線(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)市場(chǎng)支出預(yù)測(cè) (單位:百萬(wàn)美元)

注:四舍五入后,數(shù)字之和可能并不完全等于總計(jì)數(shù)值

來(lái)源:Gartner(2020 年 7 月)

“盡管受新冠疫情的影響,2020 年 5G 方面的投資增長(zhǎng)率略有下滑(不包括大中華地區(qū)和日本),但各地通信服務(wù)提供商正在迅速將新的和可自由支配的資金投入于建設(shè) 5G 網(wǎng)絡(luò)和 5G 平臺(tái)。” Takiishi 先生表示。

“從短期來(lái)看,大中華地區(qū)在 5G 發(fā)展方面處于世界領(lǐng)先地位,2020 年全球投資的 49.4% 都來(lái)自于該地區(qū)。中國(guó)制造的極具性?xún)r(jià)比的基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)設(shè)備,再加上國(guó)家的支持以及減少的監(jiān)管壁壘,為中國(guó)主要的通信服務(wù)提供商快速實(shí)現(xiàn) 5G 覆蓋鋪平了道路?!?Takiishi 先生表示,“但是,其他那些較早采用且技術(shù)嫻熟的國(guó)家也緊隨其后。”

Gartner 預(yù)測(cè),由于人口對(duì)通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)的高度依賴(lài)將引發(fā)行為改變,通信服務(wù)提供商將利用這一變化,因此 5G 領(lǐng)域的投資在 2021 年將溫和反彈。2022 年 5G 領(lǐng)域的投資將超過(guò) LTE/4G。

通信服務(wù)提供商將逐步在其非獨(dú)立(NSA)5G 網(wǎng)絡(luò)內(nèi)添加獨(dú)立(SA)功能。Gartner 預(yù)測(cè),到 2023 年全球?qū)⒂?15% 的通信服務(wù)提供商運(yùn)行不依賴(lài) 4G 網(wǎng)絡(luò)基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)的獨(dú)立 5G 網(wǎng)絡(luò)。這將使無(wú)線(xiàn)市場(chǎng)的投資迅速?gòu)?LTE/4G 領(lǐng)域轉(zhuǎn)移開(kāi)來(lái),同時(shí)傳統(tǒng) RAN 基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)領(lǐng)域的支出也將迅速下滑。


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