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大膽預(yù)測一下微信應(yīng)用號的戰(zhàn)略:做一個全新概念的“長尾市場”!
時間:2016-01-13 08:22:30
文章發(fā)布:
原創(chuàng)作者:未知
來源:互聯(lián)網(wǎng)

昨天一堆人都在唱衰應(yīng)用號,說如何如何不可能,對此我只能說“你這樣批評有個卵用,說得好像這些問題人家微信團隊沒想過一樣”,消極對待可能會使得你和那些錯過早期在淘寶開店的商家估計會是差不多的下場,錯過紅利期。

唱衰的理由總結(jié)起來很簡單,也就三個觀點:

第一種,“你們這群技術(shù)渣,native的優(yōu)勢是無可取代,微信的應(yīng)用號限制太多必死無疑”

答:應(yīng)用號和native之間不是互相矛盾的,和網(wǎng)店與實體店是一個道理,網(wǎng)店在剛開始的時候有無數(shù)致命問題幾乎所有人都不看好,信任感低,銷售困難,維權(quán)困難,無法實體體驗,平臺沒了你就沒了,當中隨便一個理由都可以輕易否定掉網(wǎng)店,然而即使缺少這些優(yōu)勢網(wǎng)店依然起來了,現(xiàn)在都開始唱衰實體店了,但這里面的本質(zhì)原因你們想過為什么沒有?別從片面去看,而要從整個系統(tǒng)去看

第二種,“我就想問問我看文章的時候朋友突然來個消息我再回來就要很多麻煩的步驟,這要是應(yīng)用號出了肯定更麻煩”

答:問這種問題的一般都是用戶,但實際上這種交互體驗問題在技術(shù)上解決辦法是很多的,微信團隊想到的第一個也可能就是這個問題,解決辦法可以從界面信息設(shè)計和技術(shù)上的一些邏輯記錄去解決

第三種,“創(chuàng)業(yè)者的數(shù)據(jù)怎么能給騰訊呢,你的數(shù)據(jù)都在他手里你會安心么?

“你真這么有商業(yè)價值你也不會用應(yīng)用號了,應(yīng)用號本來就是提供核心功能的地方,技術(shù)開發(fā)存在大量天花板,應(yīng)用號的作用是獲取用戶快捷低廉,驗證產(chǎn)品核心價值,用戶如果想要完整的服務(wù)完全可以去下載你們native的app”

放心吧,微信應(yīng)用號沒那么簡單也沒那么復(fù)雜,別急著跟風唱衰,如果可以真的是個窗口你可能就會真的錯過了,就像你錯過訂閱號的紅利期一樣。

要有一個相對準確的預(yù)測得從微信的價值觀出發(fā),站在微信之父張小龍的角度去思考,看看他給應(yīng)用號的“DNA”是什么,也就是那些核心不變價值

1. 讓創(chuàng)造發(fā)揮價值———“釋放創(chuàng)造力”

2. 一切以用戶價值為依歸———“以用戶體驗為主”

一、先說第一個,“釋放創(chuàng)造力”

native的成本到底有多高?

o 推廣:平均成本5元一個下載 ,100萬的下載量,月留存能有10w的都是少數(shù)中的少數(shù)

o 開發(fā):安卓,ios要分開做,大量的機型、os版本差異、交互特殊等

就這兩項能承受起的就不多了,起步價50w+左右,巨額的成本將大量的idea扼殺在搖籃里。而這些死掉的idea大部分就是因為市場小,盈利跟不上巨大的成本而看不到未來。

以小而美的產(chǎn)品為代表再說第二個,以用戶體驗為主。微信做的就是把開發(fā)和推廣這兩項成本盡可能的降低,推掉成本這座大山,改變移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)應(yīng)用的規(guī)則,讓創(chuàng)造者能把核心資源(錢和時間)關(guān)注到用戶體驗上,去真正為用戶創(chuàng)造價值。

大膽預(yù)測一下應(yīng)用號的戰(zhàn)略:

做一個全新概念的“長尾市場”!!!

做一個全新概念的“長尾市場”!!!

在這里每用戶都能輕松得找到自己的小眾的需要,每個商家都能輕松地找到小眾的用戶群體。就像是淘寶,只不過平臺的商家變成了創(chuàng)業(yè)者,商品變成了輕量級應(yīng)用。

這類應(yīng)用一般是小而美的,以核心功能為主。

這里要注意的是與重新創(chuàng)造一個長尾不同,用戶已經(jīng)在了,要做好的就是怎么讓供給方上來,并控制好他們產(chǎn)出的東西。

二、長尾形成三要素

1. 生產(chǎn)普及———廉價好用的生產(chǎn)工具

2. 傳播普及———有效的信息分發(fā)的渠道

3. 供需相連———過濾器

1、廉價好用的生產(chǎn)工具———多種模塊化的接口SDK

已有的比如微信支付,用戶賬號,二維碼,商城,數(shù)據(jù)庫等,可能會開放的有部分用戶行為數(shù)據(jù)。

這里我提個問題:可能還會開發(fā)怎樣的模塊化接口?才能讓大多數(shù)符合大多數(shù)應(yīng)用呢?

2、傳播的好工具———營銷成本的降低

這可能是關(guān)鍵中的關(guān)鍵,比開發(fā)那里重要得多的地方所在,因為微信天生有著巨大而活躍的用戶群體,沒有誰會放棄這塊用戶來源。

從“信息分發(fā)渠道”來說,微信現(xiàn)有的幾個主要渠道“朋友圈、群聊、單聊、公眾號、二維碼”,有這幾個就已經(jīng)有可能能通過關(guān)系鏈不斷傳播了,效率比現(xiàn)在這些app的推廣方式要容易許多。

微信一向的價值理念都是以讓用戶主動去選擇而不做推薦干擾。就像訂閱號一樣,如果你不關(guān)注,那么那些信息始終不會主動干擾到你。那么要做到不打擾用戶,同時幫助商家盡量精準營銷,如何通過各種渠道的整合協(xié)調(diào)去實現(xiàn)還真是一件困難的事情(因為營銷一般都具有打擾性質(zhì),兩者天生有些矛盾存在)。

這個具體猜不出來,但可以肯定的是應(yīng)用號和訂閱號會有密切的關(guān)系

3、過濾器———供需雙方的精準對接

過濾器有很多種,搜索引擎、分類標簽、算法推薦等都是,目的就是把需要的信息呈現(xiàn)給別人:

1. 先說說搜索,這個應(yīng)該會整合在原有的那個搜索位置,也就是右上角的那個位置(可能性100%)

2. 分類標簽是可能有的,你能看到的所有應(yīng)用商店都是有的,能幫助用戶快速找到需要的類型(可能性60%)

3. 算法推薦,如果微信會做,就微信擁有的大數(shù)據(jù)來說做的推薦不說有多聰明但一定不笨(可能性30%)

但微信有著天然過濾器“人際關(guān)系網(wǎng)”,這也是微信的核心競爭力之一

優(yōu)化設(shè)計關(guān)系鏈上信息的傳播形式是關(guān)鍵中的關(guān)鍵,不論是信息傳播方還是接受方都會有相應(yīng)的規(guī)則(如信息的內(nèi)容,信息的形式),這些規(guī)則將決定傳播的精準度。

就是怎么讓供給方上來,并控制好他們產(chǎn)出的東西。

三、紅利在哪里?

“小而美”的產(chǎn)品更適合應(yīng)用號,符合應(yīng)用號希望的目標,這類產(chǎn)品能獲取較多的紅利,因為追隨正確的趨勢。原因:

1. “小而美”的產(chǎn)品基本都屬于輕量級應(yīng)用,微信的應(yīng)用號的開發(fā)接口能降低開發(fā)成本,的是可能開放一些數(shù)據(jù)或者提供高效率的營銷工具幫助你找到目標用戶,節(jié)省大量資源用來做產(chǎn)品的功能和體驗

2. 復(fù)雜的產(chǎn)品操作流暢性將大打折扣

3. 符合微信的價值觀,微信自然也會幫你實現(xiàn)價值,小而美注重用戶體驗,能解決微信用戶的需求并帶來愉悅感這正是微信設(shè)計者想要的,他的生產(chǎn)工具還是傳播工具更多的自然是符合“小而美”產(chǎn)品需求的

4. 小而美的產(chǎn)品相比App形式在微信上能更容易找到對應(yīng)的用戶,營銷推廣成本大大降低

5. 付費變得更加容易,有天然的信任感和環(huán)境

四、有了應(yīng)用號可能會是怎樣一個操作流程?

既然應(yīng)用號作為一個入口,和手機桌面的感覺應(yīng)該是類似的操作體驗。

從“界面設(shè)計”上來說,應(yīng)用號將可能成為除了“消息、通訊錄、發(fā)現(xiàn)、我”這四個tab后“第五個Tab按鈕”。原因如下:

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