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應(yīng)用商店走向沒落:新APP很難獲得流量
時(shí)間:2015-11-20 09:22:14
文章發(fā)布:
原創(chuàng)作者:未知
來源:互聯(lián)網(wǎng)

        在移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)早興起的幾年時(shí)間,應(yīng)用商店曾是用戶獲取內(nèi)容和服務(wù)的重要入口,成為風(fēng)投基金和大公司所青睞領(lǐng)域,但如今,應(yīng)用商店早已風(fēng)光不再,很難獲得外界輿論關(guān)注。

        一方面,手機(jī)硬件、微信等超級APP、HTML5在取代傳統(tǒng)應(yīng)用商店的功能,另一方面,應(yīng)用商店的原有商業(yè)模式也難以維系。

        移動開發(fā)者們很早就想撇開App應(yīng)用,直接將內(nèi)容給到用戶,如今更有一個(gè)直接的理由讓它們迫不及待這么做——App獲得的流量正在大幅減少。

        子木是國內(nèi)一家手游公司的渠道負(fù)責(zé)人,她的主要工作職責(zé)就是將公司研發(fā)的產(chǎn)品推向各個(gè)主流的應(yīng)用分發(fā)平臺,并監(jiān)督每款產(chǎn)品的下載量。這幾年手游行業(yè)迅速發(fā)展,帶動了大量公司和資本涌入,她估計(jì)在剛剛過去的10月就有接近300個(gè)新游戲上市。

        面對這樣的市場,她卻有些憂慮。“對用戶來說,他們所能記住的仍是那幾個(gè)在年初就已經(jīng)霸占排行榜的產(chǎn)品”,她表示,如今一款游戲上線首發(fā)當(dāng)天能夠達(dá)到20-30萬的用戶量已經(jīng)是很優(yōu)秀的成績了。然而,一年前隨便一款游戲基本都能接近上百萬的量級。

        與游戲類似的是,移動應(yīng)用已經(jīng)越來越難以出現(xiàn)類似臉萌這樣的爆款應(yīng)用。人們拿到新手機(jī)立刻安裝的幾乎全是那些已經(jīng)發(fā)布數(shù)年的常用工具。隨著HTML5技術(shù)的發(fā)展,用戶甚至不需要安裝更多的App,就能夠通過瀏覽器或超級App中瀏覽器框架的功能訪問日常服務(wù)。

        不是用戶變得更加懶惰了,只是用戶利用傳統(tǒng)的應(yīng)用商店難以獲得其所需要的優(yōu)質(zhì)應(yīng)用。用戶究竟需要什么樣的產(chǎn)品推薦,成為每個(gè)參與流量分發(fā)的環(huán)節(jié)都在思考的難題。

        產(chǎn)業(yè)聚集帶來的危機(jī)

        從2014年第三季度開始,整個(gè)業(yè)界就已經(jīng)開始談?wù)搼?yīng)用商店的二八分化。不厭其煩被引用的一組易觀智庫的報(bào)告數(shù)據(jù)顯示,百度系、騰訊系以及360系三大應(yīng)用分發(fā)平臺共占據(jù)86%的市場份額。

        在往后的數(shù)個(gè)季度中,這幾家的占比略有變化,但整體來看馬太效應(yīng)已經(jīng)形成。至于排列在第二和第三陣營的玩家已經(jīng)默認(rèn)了巨頭對產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)則的話語權(quán),甚至他們希望通過以低價(jià)來吸引開發(fā)者的策略也難以實(shí)現(xiàn)。

        這樣的現(xiàn)狀導(dǎo)致應(yīng)用開發(fā)者的渠道推廣成本急速上升。與去年相比,在關(guān)鍵資源位的推廣費(fèi)用已經(jīng)增長了30%左右。在一些開發(fā)者聚集的微信群中,百度等渠道提價(jià)、被其他CP搶資源的話題總會引起熱烈的討論。

        開發(fā)者抱怨分發(fā)成本越來越高的同時(shí),更加擔(dān)心應(yīng)用數(shù)量增多后,其在應(yīng)用商店能夠被用戶所關(guān)注到的機(jī)會正在流失。事實(shí)上,大量應(yīng)用在上線發(fā)布后,如果不是長期燒錢搶占那些有限的廣告位,很容易被用戶所忘記。甚至沒有機(jī)會接觸到用戶,就成為長尾中的一部分。

        應(yīng)用寶日前披露的一系列數(shù)據(jù)正在引起開發(fā)者的關(guān)注。

        一方面,每個(gè)App獲得流量正在日益減少,每個(gè)App獲得的流量,與2013年相比,2014年下降了10%,而2015年與2014年相比也將下降18%;另一方面,流量正在加速向頭部App聚集。2013年,應(yīng)用分發(fā)流量的61%導(dǎo)入給了排名前100名的應(yīng)用,而在2015年,這些應(yīng)用獲得的流量上升到了69%。

        藝源咨詢分析師魏毅表示,將就大而全的中國市場,頭部應(yīng)用整合了更多的功能,其功能滿足了絕大多數(shù)用戶的日常需求,給長尾的應(yīng)用空間更加小了。

        從“商店”變成“超市”或打破界限

        究其原因,主要與應(yīng)用商店產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新乏力有關(guān)。如今打開一個(gè)應(yīng)用商店幾乎與數(shù)年前智能手機(jī)剛剛普及時(shí)相差無二,積分墻、插屏廣告、展示廣告,以及排行榜這些有限的展示位一直被延續(xù)使用到智能手機(jī)滲透率接近飽和。

        不過,一些新的試驗(yàn)正在推動應(yīng)用商店形態(tài)的升級,內(nèi)容展示成為先被用戶接受的方式。

        應(yīng)用寶將QQ閱讀中近期比較熱門的內(nèi)容提供給用戶閱覽,這帶動了整體轉(zhuǎn)化率提升了260%;而圖片合成器這類工具應(yīng)用原本的下載率很低,但為用戶提供了合成前后圖片的對比,用戶很容易理解應(yīng)用的用途,這使得該應(yīng)用的下載轉(zhuǎn)化率也提升了236%。

        在“社交分發(fā)”概念已被廣泛接受之后,應(yīng)用分發(fā)渠道開始漸漸意識到用戶在下載前需要更多使用體驗(yàn)。蘋果早早地在應(yīng)用商店提供了視頻展示的功能,以方便那些需要在下載前“教會”用戶如何使用的App獲得關(guān)注,但目前來看強(qiáng)調(diào)應(yīng)用內(nèi)服務(wù)和內(nèi)容的體驗(yàn)會更易于提升用戶下載的轉(zhuǎn)化率,尤其是那些處于長尾范圍的中小開發(fā)者。

        從“商店”變成“超市”,用戶可以提前使用,這是強(qiáng)調(diào)體驗(yàn)之后,應(yīng)用商店形態(tài)大的改變。這樣的改變也符合開發(fā)者的訴求,騰訊移動應(yīng)用平臺總經(jīng)理周濤表示,“我們看到很多開發(fā)者分發(fā)App只是一種手段,真正的結(jié)果是要分發(fā)內(nèi)容和服務(wù)”。

        應(yīng)用商店概念或?qū)⒎夯?/strong>

        未來,應(yīng)用商店或許會從體驗(yàn)式分發(fā)往直達(dá)式分發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)變,這會打破App現(xiàn)有的形態(tài),尤其是那些并不在意下載量、而是對播放量或下單量有要求的視頻電商類應(yīng)用,其內(nèi)容將可以在應(yīng)用商店中直接體現(xiàn),并完成觸達(dá)用戶和在線交易的閉環(huán)。

        但業(yè)內(nèi)仍有疑問——用戶未來到底是否需要應(yīng)用商店?事實(shí)上,用戶很多時(shí)候下載一個(gè)應(yīng)用往往僅是需要某個(gè)功能或者部分內(nèi)容。

        一方面,HTML5等技術(shù)的興起,使得用戶不用下載專門的App就可以利用瀏覽器完成類似的操作;另一方面,一些移動搜索引擎也正在做的更加智能,用戶搜索關(guān)鍵詞后,已經(jīng)可以提供相應(yīng)的內(nèi)容結(jié)果,用戶縮減了獲取結(jié)果的路徑長度。

        這是應(yīng)用商店轉(zhuǎn)型后的另一種形態(tài)的出現(xiàn)。可以看到更多的是,從操作系統(tǒng)底層到搜索引擎、瀏覽器,以及一眾超級App所具有的分發(fā)能力,應(yīng)用商店的概念勢必也將不斷泛化。

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